'For all the glamour, power, vast overspending, intense global media attention and genuinely complex national challenges facing the contenders and the American people, the race for the White House this year and next could come down to one central psephological question – who will win the Hispanic vote?
The launch of Jeb Bush’s formal campaign in Miami was an explicit pitch to that key group of electors. As a former Governor of Florida, Mr Bush is in true home territory in Miami, and in the coming months his audiences will be reminded of his wife, Columba Garnica de Gallo, his fluency in Spanish, his degree in Latin American studies and his remarkable achievement in making his Hispanic voters natural Republicans. At any rate, he probably will not have to rely on too many hanging chads in his home state, if it ever comes to it.
Symbolism counts for more than it perhaps should in US elections and, in Miami, Americans witnessed it at its most powerful. Specifically, Miami Dade College, the scene of this fifth bid for the presidency by a Bush in a little over a quarter of a century, has two-thirds of its students identifying themselves as US-born but of Latino heritage, with another quarter born variously in Cuba, Colombia, Venezuela, Nicaragua or Peru. Mr Bush is reminding them, and their compatriots, that he is about social mobility, for them as much as any group. It is a winning message.'